Monthly Archives: September 2014

32 More Mondays, and the big truth is now out there…

Last week’s election in Scotland may well be the most interesting thing that has certainly happened in this entire Tory Governmant. Here we all thought that Big Dave, Red Ed and the others were rushing up to rescue the day at the demand of Grandma Liz… At the end of the day, the vote wasn’t even close, but they knew that all along. Turns out what they needed to ensure was that these dopes north of the border didn’t ask the real question, which was who was going to pay for all this largesse?

So, of course Alex you don’t want those nasty Englishmen voting on Scottish issues, but then you want them to pay for it all… And now that there is going to be an English assembly just like yours in Scotland, you are horrified… Scandalous! And not only that, you have the full power to tax your people as much as you want and give them all the benefits you want… So, exactly how is it that you are going to tell your people that they now have to pay for all those benefits? And how do you plan to tell them that the 20 year northbound freight train of money is coming to end?
Big Dave and all his buddies have zoomed off to Chequers to contemplate just how to make this work for a couple of days. So thank you Alex, and thank you Scotland, you have given us the complete justification to form a fully empowered English Assembly. And now we won’t have to give the slightest thought to the trainspotters on the other side of Hadrian’s Wall. And even better, Dave has promised us a vote on it before the May elections! How great is that? Imagine what the result of that election will be? So just when Alex and his buddies were going to give Dave a right rogering, he turns it totally around on Alex and the whole country of Scotland. Good thing you stepped down, some of the “Bruce” relations probably have a lynching in mind…
And just when we thought it couldn’t get better, we find out that a quarter of all the Labour MPs are from Scotland, and they won’t have any say in England. What? Suddenly Red Ed and his boys have almost as big a party as Nick Clegg, and we know how well that has worked out for them…

This might be one reason why people chose to drive rather than use public transport

This is so true, I use the #1 bus all the time to go to the Farnborough train station, and it rarely operates to anything resembling a schedule. The screens showing the next bus at the Farnborough train station have been out for over a year, and this is their most profitable route? This urgently needs attention, because when you do manage to get through to a human to complain, they deny that anything is wrong or that they have heard it before… Needs urgent action…

Surrey Heath Residents Network

Deepcut Bus StopOn Wednesday this week I decided to get the bus to Woking from Deepcut. I have a client there and I thought the time on the bus would be a great chance for me to catch up on emails. Also I am becoming more and more conscious that using public transport over our cars has to be more sustainable.

However, the experience was so bad I had to abandon the trip before I even got on a bus.

As I walked back from the bus stop to my car the only thing I could think was “Its no wonder people chose to drive over public transport”.

The bus to Woking (No 48) from Deepcut only operates every 2 hours. My understanding is that it used to operate every hour but the demand for the service was so low it was cut back to every 2 hours. After a conversation with…

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34 More Mondays and the Need for Knee-jerk Incompetence

I think we need to offer a strong congratulations to Max Nelson @maxnelson120 for the great campaign he waged for the Old Dean by-election. Having seen it from up-close and personal for every day of the last 3 weeks of the campaign, we did everything we could do to win.  By the end, every street had been canvassed 3 times, every phone number we had was called 3 times, and we had as good a set of data as you can have in this short a time period.  We also got a great deal of help from the guys at Conservative Support in London.  We employed the very latest technology in data collection and data analysis, and I am confident that there was not one more thing we could have done to win under the circumstances we were given.  So here are the actual results with the actual differences from 3 years ago:

Lab 290 44%
Con 196 30%
Ukip 171 26%
Total 657

Lab 553 54%
Con 337 33%
Ukip 130 13%
Total 1020

So, we can see:
1.       The voter turnout was very low vs. 3 years ago, which was not high then
2.       We lost 3% share from 3 years ago, working very hard to get what we got.  So, as hard as we worked, we still lost 3% share
3.       Ukip gained 13% share by doing absolutely nothing. We never once saw Eddie on the campaign trail, didn’t see a Ukip leaflet, nothing…
4.       Labour lost 10% share from 3 years ago using every known Labour tactic, they worked just as hard if not harder than us…

What we can see from this is that Ukip’s gain, in strict mathematical terms; came 3% directly from us and 10% directly from Labour, and really nothing from the composite whole.  As a little local by-election, comparison to the rest of Surrey Heath and the national scene that we are going into is dubious at best.  However, there are some strands of truth here that we need to pay very close attention to:

1.       Because we had such strong effort from everyone involved, we can take some conclusion as to the effort that is available in each ward in the election coming up.  That is, we could not possibly muster this much effort in any one ward in the next election, so we have to understand just how much work is in front of us here over the next 8 months
2.       Ukip is perceived as taking the most from the conservatives, but that is not true. Labour lost a lot more to them than we did.  A claim that a vote for Ukip is an absolute vote putting Ed Milliband into #10 Downing Street is probably not exactly correct. The veracity impact of the Ukip position was approximately 25% in this local election of what it will be in the national election.
3.       In the upcoming election, on the door canvassing is central to our position. The next most important activity is our social media reach out.  In the selection process, we can only afford candidates who are prepared to be part of a team to canvass every door in their respective wards over the next 8 months and reach out aggressively by social media.
4.       We need to take advantage of the latest technology to make our efforts pay off. We need to call on the right houses on the right roads and learn how to use the technology to nurture our base
5.       There is a big component to this whole strategy process that can only come from our leadership. We could say whatever we wanted on the doorstep, but Ukip grew in stature by doing absolutely nothing on the campaign trail, they didn’t even have someone telling…

The particular issue that we heard about over and over from the Ukip supporters was immigration.  I think that this is the reason why it affects the Labour strongholds of what is referred to as the “working class” the most.  We continuously heard of the jobs from the tradespeople that work on the Old Dean losing out to Poles and Eastern Europeans, who are part of the “New Europe”.  All the difficulties of that “New Europe” immigration were handed to us by Labour… These voters are the people most directly affected, and these are the people who are going to take that to the ballot box.  What we further heard, is that whilst they appreciate the hardening position we have on immigration, they do not trust any governmental administrative entity to make it work, because whilst we talk a lot, there has been no real change in immigration numbers from their perspective. It is pointless to tell people we have slowed immigration from 300K to 250k people…  Policy statements and small wins in this battle are meaningless to the man on the street, and don’t get them started on the ISIS people returning to the UK…

35 ways to kill your Mammy…

So, tonight we are watching this epic comic/drama about this Irish bloke who takes his 73 year old 5 ft tall mum on these bizarre adventures that basically scare the pants off her. Being a big Irish bloke with with a 5 ft tall mum. It is amazingly funny…

We are on the home stretch to get Max Nelson elected, 3 more days… For the first time ran into a UKIP couple, gave me the most distended logic about why they would vote UKIP in his little local election, as if they were sending some very special message to the electorate at large…

So, it will all heat up in the next few days, and then it’s over… Another drama past and 34 more to go…